A brief word on Iowa

Iowa does not really pick the winner -- McCain did not even campaign there in 2008 -- so why the excitement? Ron Paul is too creepy to have a chance. (Greenwald's sorta-pro-Paul argument was one of that writer's few false moves.) Perry is more or less out, Bachmann is also heading toward the exit door, Newt is fading. So it all comes down Romney versus Santorum.

I like what Paul Begala said:

You gotta love a party in which Mitt Romney can do no better than virtually tie with the guy who compared gays to "man on dog" sex and thinks contraception is evil.

I should consider Santorum the lesser of these two evils, given his working class Eye-talian background. On social issues, his old school Catholicism will outrage many progressives, but I can't take his rhetoric seriously. It's just rhetoric; the country will go on as it has been.

What counts is Santorum's attitude toward war.

The guy is itching to go after Iran. Conservatives have increased their war-cries, even though, at this writing, Iran has done nothing to us, and has been at peace for many years. The good folks at Judicial Watch sent me an email broadside yesterday which made the shameless recommendation to "nuke Iran." Frightening stuff.

The Republicans would have to be foolish to allow the main issue of 2012 to become war or peace with Iran. Americans are sick of war. We've ruined our economy paying for two needless conflicts. Deep down, we did not want war with Iran even in 1980; we certainly aren't screaming for blood now.

If Santorum runs as The War Guy while Obama runs as The Peace Guy, Obama will win.

We still haven't finished cleaning up after Dubya's bloody mess. It's too early for the GOP to think of running another neocon.

The more interesting question: How will the party's power elite react?

I've long said that the real behind-the-scenes battle in this country is between those who want to save America through military Keynesianism and those who want to profit from strip-mining the country's assets. Santorum represents the former; Romney represents the latter.